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Pascal's Wager

Wade Robins

During the 1600’s, physicist Blaise Pascal proposed a philosophy that famously became known as Pascal’s Wager. In short, this argument proposes you should believe in god just in case. I’ve been presented this idea a number of times and in different ways since I left the church. I was told to just go through the motions of Mormonism and “fake it til you make it”. The idea is that you wager or place your entire bet on the plausible chance that god is real. If you're wrong, there is only a finite loss of a wasted life. If your right, you get an eternal reward in heaven. I wanted to bring up this idea because I think there are a number of current members who keep going to church “just in case”. I certainly remember those thoughts when church was so boring I would crochet for hours on end just to stay awake. Gotta earn my Jesus Points, I would reassure myself.


However, there are a number of issues with Pascal’s Wager. First of all, you could use the same logic with any of the numerous religions. You should believe in Allah just in case. And, you should believe in Shiva, Buddha, Jehovah, Zeus, The Flying Spaghetti Monster... just in case. But it’s not possible to spread your bets on each religion “just in case” they’re right, because religions fundamentally differ greatly. I find it incredibly arrogant when others claim to KNOW with 100% certainty that the winning number is black 16 so they place their entire bet and entire life on that chance. How do you know? Scriptures, Prophets, Revelation? Other religions have equally arrogant claims too. How can I personally be sure which is actually true? Every religious “proof” or “knowledge” of truth stems from circular logic and fallacies.


Another big issue, is that true ‘belief’ is something one can not choose. I could ask you genuinely believe in Santa Clause with all your heart. And sure, maybe you go through the actions and write him a letter, sing holiday carols, bake cookies on Christmas Eve… but deep down you’ll be certain he does not exist, maybe just on a subconscious level, but you’ll have doubts. If I could, I would have chosen to believe in God if only to avoid being ostracized by the Utah Mormon culture (and to avoid eternal damnation of course). Gods know I tried. And besides, even if you do fake it, an omniscient god will know that you’re pretending to try and avoid hell.


Lastly, I think there can be harm in life devoted to religion. It’s living according to a reward system based on a supposed afterlife that no one has proof of. You might be placing all your bets on “Black 16” when the roulette table doesn’t even exist. Alternatively, one could live according to their own personal morals based on the observable reality of life and be accountable for one’s own misdeeds rather than scapegoating them on to Jesus. Also, religion blatantly or subconsciously shames and discriminates moral people depending on how they define “sin” as revealed by their particular god of worship. Being religious is living a life of cognitive dissonance, inner conflict, and delusion. It stunts further freethinking and scientific discovery. It allows one to pray and then trust in god and give him full credit for any blessing rather than busting your ass for your own accountable reward. It smothers individualism through strict obedience to imaginary laws and commandments.


YouTuber, CosmicSkeptic, has many great videos, but his explanation of Pascal’s Wager is fantastic. It’s not a good bet. If you’re not sure a god exists, there’s no need to pretend you believe just in case.


- CosmicSkeptic

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